The Top 10 Global Risks for 2024

Now:About 1,500 demonstrators at an anti war protest in Tel Aviv. Calling for an immediate ceasefire, and for a negotiated peace agreement as the only way to guarantee security and a return of hostages. Published on X by user (@ha_matar)

1. The United State  vs itself:

While the US military and economy are exceptionally strong, its political system is inefficient compared to other advanced industrial democracies. In 2024, the problem will be even worse. The presidential election will deepen the country's political divisions, test American democracy to a degree it has not seen in 150 years, and undermine America's credibility internationally. Since the outcome of the vote (at least for now) is more like a coin toss, the only certainty is that it will damage the social fabric, the political system, and the international standing of America. The prospect of a Trump victory weakens America's position on the world stage as Republicans embrace Trump's foreign policy stances and US allies and enemies shun possible Trump policies amid a global crisis.

2. The Middle East is on the brink:

The fighting in Gaza may escalate in 2024, and there are several ways to escalate into a wider regional war. It could also bring the United States and Iran directly into war. This conflict poses risks to the global economy, widens geopolitical and political divisions, and fuels global extremism. The most direct way to escalate tensions is for Israel or Hezbollah to decide to attack the other. Israel's top leaders have vowed to "eliminate" the Hezbollah threat. If Israel strikes first, the US military will provide support, and Iran will support Hezbollah, the region's most important proxy. Houthi militias are also on the rise, and Shia militias operating in Iraq and Syria have increased their attacks on US military bases with the support of Tehran. The countries involved in the Gaza conflict do not want to start a regional conflict. However, the powder is dry and the number of players carrying matches is high, increasing the risk of escalation.

3. Divided Ukraine:

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a historic failure. NATO is strengthened by new members Finland and Sweden. The EU has opened the membership process for Ukraine, Russia has faced 11 rounds of sanctions, more are on the way, and half of its sovereign assets have been frozen – money that is increasingly likely to be used for Ukrainian reconstruction. Europe is no longer buying Russian energy. But Ukraine will be de facto divided this year, and Russia now has the battlefield initiative and material advantage. 2024 is an inflection point in the war: and if Ukraine does not solve its manpower problems, increase weapons production and decide on a real military strategy soon, its territorial losses may prove permanent and may well expand. Kyiv has been dealt a physical blow by the reduction of political and material support from the United States, and the outlook for European aid is little better. Ukraine is desperate for more troops. For all these reasons, Kiev will take major military risks this year, including strikes on more targets inside Russia that could provoke unprecedented Russian reactions and drag NATO into the conflict.

4. Uncontrolled AI: 

Technology will overtake AI governance in 2024 as regulatory efforts falter, tech companies remain largely unregulated, and more powerful AI models and tools proliferate beyond government control.

5. Axis of Rogues (and America's Dangerous Friends):

In 2024, Russia, North Korea, and Iran will boost each other's capabilities and act increasingly coordinated and disruptively on the global stage. Meanwhile, even Washington's friends - the leaders of Ukraine, Israel and (potentially) Taiwan - will draw the US into a confrontation it wants to avoid.

6. No China recovery:

China's economy will underperform through 2024, absent an unlikely loosening of President Xi Jinping's grip on power or a radical pivot toward massive consumer stimulus and structural reform. Beijing's failure to reform the country's sputtering economic growth model, the country's financial fragility, and economic vulnerabilities. A crisis of public confidence will expose gaps in the Chinese Communist Party's leadership capabilities and increase the risk of social instability.

7. Battle for Complex Minerals:

Critical minerals will be a critical component in virtually every area that will drive growth, innovation, and national security in the 21st century, from clean energy to advanced computing, biotechnology, transportation, and defense. In 2024, governments around the world will intensify their use of industrial policies and trade restrictions that disrupt the flow of vital minerals.

8. No room for error:

The global inflationary shock that started in 2021 will continue the economic and political drag in 2024. High interest rates due to stubborn inflation will slow growth around the world, and governments will have little room to stimulate growth or respond to shocks, increasing risk. Financial stress, social unrest and political instability.

9. El Nino is back:

After a four-year absence, a powerful El Niño climate pattern will peak in the first half of this year, bringing extreme weather events that fuel food insecurity, increase water stress, disrupt logistics, spread disease and spark migration and political instability. is, especially in countries already vulnerable to the pandemic and energy and food price shocks created by the Ukraine war.

10. Hazardous occupation:

Consumers, employees, and investors—mostly on the progressive side  have seen the U.S. The culture wars have brought them into corporate offices, and now the courts, state legislatures, governors and activist groups - mostly conservative groups- will fight back. Companies caught in the political and legal crossfire face more uncertainty and costs.